This market isn’t bullish, it isn’t bearish, it’s something far more dangerous: it’s indifferent. That’s right. We are neck-deep in what I call a “nonchalance trade.” The kind of trade where algorithms are running on fumes, money managers are throwing darts, and retail traders are buying because, well, they’re bored. So if you think there’s conviction in this market, you’re kidding yourself.
Remember Supertramp and “Give a Little Bit?” That’s the market’s motto right now. The S&P? Giving a little bit back. Crypto? Giving a little bit more. Tariffs? Oh, they’re about to give us a whole lot of grief. But no one’s paying attention. That’s the problem. Markets aren’t priced off narratives anymore—they’re priced off short-term psychology and misaligned liquidity rotations. And that’s not a foundation. That’s quicksand.
Now, let’s talk about what matters: catalysts...
I don’t care what my colleagues Gianni or Don say. When I see a gap trade, if there’s no catalyst—no earnings beat, no guidance raise, no insider buying—I fade it. Period. Price without purpose is a liar, and this market’s full of deception. Everyone’s chasing a pop that has no legs, buying candles without checking RSI, and completely ignoring money flow. Why? Because it’s easier to click “Buy” than to ask “Why?”
Then there’s Bitcoin. Oh, boy. Everyone and their grandma thinks they’re Warren Buffett because they tossed a thousand bucks into the blockchain black hole. But let me ask you: where do you think that money’s coming from? It’s coming out of equities. It’s a rotation. A dollar into crypto is a dollar not into stocks. And with Bitcoin climbing and the dollar falling, what do you think happens next? Pressure on equities. What we’re seeing now is a warning shot.
And don’t even get me started on tariffs. The market is pretending it doesn’t care, but by August 1st, that illusion ends. Trump’s 30% levy on the EU and Mexico is real. And if you think that won’t eventually hit margins, you’re delusional. Prices are already creeping up—food, metals, transport—you name it. Inflation’s not transitory; it’s structural. That means no rate cuts. That means no Fed backstop. And that means risk-off is just one bad earnings print away.
You want to be a hero? Go long. You want to be smart? Raise cash. I’m 54% cash and climbing. I’m not here to impress you—I’m here to make money and sleep well. And right now, my shorts are printing because the cracks are already showing. You just need to look past the surface.
This market doesn’t need a collapse to hurt you. It just needs to stagnate while you stay overexposed. So give a little bit? Sure. Give a little bit of your attention to catalysts, to rotation, to divergence. Or give a lot when the floor drops out from underneath you.
Your choice.
By Professor Jeffrey Bierman, CMT