The market is convinced the Fed is satisfied with its inflation effort and is preparing to cut interest rates. We’ll gauge the reality of those expectations this week with a heat check on PPI and CPI data.
The “$64,000 Dollar Question” is: How is the market positioned?
If today’s action is any indication, it’s positioned for stagflation. Commodity strength, particularly gold leadership, and a softer, negative tone from other more cyclical sectors is showing. We saw tech strength, it’s true, but otherwise the dismal performance of real estate, telecom, and financials screams stagflation.
Don’t let that tech performance get you too excited; it’s reached its 61.8% Fibo retracement area. It could get a lot harder from here.
This week, I’m listening for the dollar to start to tell a story - whether it strengthens or weakens will determine what that tells us. Here’s what I mean…